What are the top 3 rookie mistakes?
Mistake #1: Miscalculating Odds with Two Cards to Come
On the flop, you can calculate the probability of improving your hand on the
next card or you can calculate the probability on improving on either the turn
or the river. Many players use “Out” charts which have the calculations done for
you so that you can easily see the odds given a certain number of outs.
Calculating the odds is rather straightforward. The mistakes come when players
start to make decisions based on the odds with two cards to come. For example,
let’s say you have a gut shot draw. The odds of improving on the next card are
11 to 1. The odds of improving on either the turn or river are 5 to 1. Players
who always call on the flop when they are getting 5 to 1 pot odds are making a
mistake. Let’s take a closer look at this.
Many players forget to include the cost of the turn bet. If you are going to
draw to the river with two cards to come, you must include the cost of the turn
bet in your calculation. For example, you have a gut shot draw in a $1-$2 game
and there is $5 in the pot. You are getting 5 to 1 pot odds. Your odds of
improving by the river are 5 to 1. If you only consider the $1 bet on the flop
then you would call; however, this is incorrect since you will have to pay $1 on
the flop and $2 on the river. The 5 to 1 odds of improving is based on receiving
two cards so you must include the cost of receiving two cards in your
calculation; therefore, you need to be able to win $15 for calling to be correct
($3 x 5). With only $5 in the pot on the flop, it will difficult to win an
additional $10 from your opponents to justify a call. It is often correct to
call on the flop and fold on the turn. Even when you include the cost of the
turn bet in your calculation, this will still lead to mistakes as sometimes you
will fold even though calling one more bet on the flop is correct. Let’s say
that in the above example there is $8 in the pot and you are faced with a $1
bet. If you are using odds with two cards to come, you would again calculate
that you need to win $15 in this pot to justify calling. It is doubtful you
would win an additional $7 on the turn and river from your opponents so you
decide to fold. However, this would be a mistake. On the flop, you only have to
pay $1 to see one more card. The odds of improving on the next card are 11 to 1.
Therefore, you need to win a total of $11 to justify calling on the flop. With
$8 in the pot, you are getting pretty good implied odds that you will win an
additional $3 on the turn and/or river to justify a single call on the flop. In
this particular example, it is often correct to call on the flop when the bets
are small and then fold on the turn when the bets get bigger. Sometimes you
eliminate this possibility when using odds with two cards to come.
When using odds with two cards to come you sometimes commit yourself to seeing
the river no matter what happens. This can be a mistake as the pot can be
raised, the turn will change the context of the board which may counterfeit your
outs, etc. So how should you make decisions when applying odds? In limit poker,
you should make them one street at a time. On the flop, calculate the odds of
improving on the next card and then compare them to the implied pot odds you are
receiving. The implied pot odds includes the total amount currently in the pot
plus any additional bets you expect to win from your opponents should you
improve (sometimes you might improve on the turn only to lose on the river so
you need to include this possibility in your calculations). If you don’t improve
on the turn, go through the same process of comparing the odds of improving on
the river to the implied pot odds. When you make decisions one step at a time
you’ll avoid mistakes and avoid over-committing to a pot when the situation
might change.
Some of you might be asking, “When do you use odds with two cards to come and
why do a lot of poker books show an “Out” chart for two cards to come?” Odds
with two cards to come should be used in all-in situations. This occurs a lot in
no-limit poker. Someone bets and you are going to be all in on the flop. In this
case, two card odds are very helpful. This can happen also in Limit poker when
either you or your opponent might be in an allin situation because of a small
stack, but this is not too common. In my book, Internet Texas Hold’em, I decided
to take out the two-card column in the “Out” chart of the revised edition to
eliminate confusion about this topic since you rarely use two-card outs in limit
poker.
So remember, make decisions in limit poker one street at a time and you’ll be on
your way to beating the odds.